Category: Attitude
Anticipating What’s Next
If you believe the media’s packaging of economic news you’d expect America to be on its last legs, soon to be a second class province of China.
That’s the news biz for ya.
They’ve discovered that we love to be scared nearly to death (that’s why we go to see horror films), so anything they can slant in the direction of gloom and doom, they will. It’s just packaging; and come on – we’re all in sales: we know you can package or spin almost anything any way you want. The info-tainment people (what we used to call “the news”) want as many viewers and readers as possible and they believe spinning the economy into the dirt will do that for them.
Walter Cronkite would not be pleased.
I don’t buy the vision that it can only get worse from here. I believe positive change is already occurring and will only accelerate in the months ahead. Instead of devastation in the housing market, I’m looking for (gulp! dare I say it?) a housing shortage!
For six years, we’ve barely added any new housing units at all. Each year we’ve created less than 50% of the new homes and condos we have historically needed just to keep up with the demand of new buyers coming into the market and obsolete units being demolished. Today, while we have substantial inventory of resale homes (including REOs) , we also have a home building industry at a near total stall. Nobody’s building anything. When the tipping point of low interest rates and rising consumer confidence is reached (and it will be reached), I expect buyers to flood into the market, quickly deplete the resale inventory that is there and clamor for more. Honestly: we could suddenly be in a sellers’ market!
Let’s define a couple of time issues. First off, when. I don’t know? Late 2012? mid-2013? Nobody knows when homebuyer collective consciousness will give the signal and the multitude of people with jobs and credit will emerge. The other time issue is the word, “suddenly.” How “suddenly” will we roll from an inventory glut to a sellers’ market? Relatively quickly compared to the six years it took to get us to this point. A year, maybe.
I posted a NAR Research piece from Lawrence Yun documenting recent declines in inventory on Facebook earlier today and chimed in with my housing shortage prediction. Steve Vincent from Help-U-Sell Triad in North Carolina responded with a street wise perspective:
James Dingman: At Summit, I talked about the potential for a pending housing shortage. For six years we’ve created very little new housing and when the tipping point is reached and buyers flood back into the market, a shortage could develop quickly. Mr. Yun adds fuel to that fire.
Tom Burdine: That is probably true, but it sounds amazingly impossible right now!
Steve Vincent: I’m concerned that at the first hint of good or improving news there will be a rush of new listings from people who have postponed marketing their home. No one talks about that potential ‘shadow inventory.’
James Dingman: Don’t you think we’d have to see a 10% or more increase in values before fence-sitting sellers came back? My guess is most are waiting because they don’t think they can get enough for their properties. What they’re waiting for is for values to return, but that’s going to take YEARS.
Steve Vincent: Certainly truth in that, but my day-to-day experience makes me think there are plenty of sellers just avoiding the long, slow market for reasons other than current value. Many just don’t want the hassle in what they perceive to be a losing situation. In our market the “move-up buyer” has largely disappeared. Combination of reasons: job insecurity, waiting for the market to bottom before purchasing, avoiding marketing their current home. I think there are lots of these would be sellers who are just waiting for good news – a better mood. My guess is the election could turn the tide for these folks.
James Dingman: Ah – so the real world (that’s you) sees a lot of sellers in ‘Hibernation’ during this economic winter. When the thaw begins, and when they rush in, we’re going to sputter and lurch like a cold Model T. Ok, I get that. Sometimes, up here where the rubber meets the clouds, we can miss the nuances.
Steve Vincent: I think hibernation is the exact right term. When these folks return to the market it will have a supressing result. Hopefully, their numbers are less than I fear.
I can see Steve’s point and agree: an improvement may create new challenges as well. But the key is, there will be movement in the market place. Movement creates momentum and opportunity.
We’re heading into Thanksgiving in a few days. I love the Holiday because I love food. I also love it because it’s all about Gratitude. If you believe we create our own reality, if you buy the idea that we attract what we think about, you know positive change begins with gratitude. Good things rarely come to people who are obsessed with what they don’t have. Good things rarely come to people who are unhappy with what they do have. (As I’ve said before: Money Loves Happy).
So this Thanksgiving, let’s be grateful for a housing market that is better than it was, for buyers who can buy, for sellers who can sell and for lenders who can lend. Let’s rejoice that we are doing better – even if it’s just a little better – and set up the Universe to create that buyer tipping point soon.
Differentiation and Passion
I am looking around the NAR Exhibit hall. There are a dozen real estate companies with booths (maybe more). I’m seeing them: Keller-Williams, Re/Max, Exit, Prudential, the Realogy Brands (Coldwell Banker, Century 21, ERA, Better Homes and Gardens, Southebys), and more . . . and suddenly all of the color strips out of the picture. I’m seeing them in black and white. No; greyscale. They all kind of smoosh together into a large amorphous glob of grey sludge. I can’t tell them apart, can’t distinguish one from the other.
I start listening, and I’m hearing the same buzz-words from every corner: great training! family atmosphere! recruiting tools! referrals! brand recognition! I can’t tell who’s saying what because they are all saying the same thing. And when I listen carefully, they’re not saying much of anything at all!
Really: there is not one iota of differentiation among the big brands in real estate today. That entire universe has become generic. None are talking about selling real estate, all are talking about recruiting; none are talking about the consumer, all are talking about how many agents they have. It’s as if the most recognized brands in the business are in flight from the consumer! They are tossing them aside, telling their agents, ‘Here, you deal with these people; we’re in the franchising business.’
And then I turn around and see a gem. It’s a ruby, an emerald, a diamond all beautifully wrapped in platinum . . . Help-U-Sell. It looks different, it sounds different, it says different things, and it sticks out like a Gulliver among the Lilliputians.
Yes, we are different. We talk constantly about the consumer, what he or she wants, what would delight them, how we can better reach and care for them. Our bullseye is crystal clear: sell more real estate. Sure, we’d like to have more outlets, more agents, but that’s the means, not the end. That’s how we sell more real estate.
There is great power in differentiation. When you are different, it’s easier for the consumer to see you. When you are different there is a natural curiosity that causes people to ask, ‘What do you do?’
When they started, Re/Max had great differentiation. They were doing what nobody else was doing, and they took the industry by storm. Then they became like everyone else – or everyone else became more like them – their picture turned to greyscale, and they went into decline. The same story could be told (with different colors) about Century 21, Coldwell, Keller . . . eventually they all become part of the soup and the magic is gone.
Not so with Help-U-Sell. We’ve stuck out like a wonderfully sore thumb since 1976. We have a brilliant Red force-field around us that effectively repells shades of grey. The industry has the same reaction to us today they did 35 years ago: they scratch their heads and say, ‘Huh? Are you guys still HERE?’
Yes, we are still here. You can’t kill us. That’s because we’ve paired this wonderful differentiation with a super-human power: passion. Passion is our Kryptonite.
Help-U-Sell is not just a Brand; it’s a belief system. We honestly believe that we have a better deal, one that works better, that’s better for consumers, for Brokers and for agents. We are as much about changing the way real estate is sold as we are about simply selling real estate. And our people go to the wall for their faith in Help-U-Sell every day of their lives.
Overheard at NAR yesterday, from a former Help-U-Sell Franchisee: ‘The happiest days of my real estate career were the ones I spent as a Help-U-Sell Broker.’
Becoming part of Help-U-Sell is like meeting the love of your life, your soulmate. Even if things go south and you end up apart, you remember that time as the best.
Steve Jobs once said:
When I hire somebody really senior, competence is the ante. They have to be really smart. But the real issue for me is, Are they going to fall in love with Apple? Because if they fall in love with Apple, everything else will take care of itself.
You could substitute the word ‘Help-U-Sell’ for ‘Apple’ in that phrase . . . it’s the same here. Our people are in love with Help-U-Sell. They love feeling good about what they do for consumers. They love being different, being better. They love saving people money. They love being in control of their destiny. . .
And I love them.
A Little Good News
Fiserv, the company that operates and distributes results from the Case-Schiller Index is out with some welcome predictions. The Index tracks trends in the sale of existing single family homes and uses historical data and a variety of other factors to predict everything from prices to volume. The good news is:
They expect nationwide prices to stabilize in 2012 and rise 2.7% by the first quarter of 2013. Gains are expected in 365 out of 384 metro markets by 2013.
Now there’s a breath of fresh air.
Four markets they expect to see the greatest increase in value over that period are:
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL: Prices to rise 18.3% by the 1st Q of 2013.
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Wash.: Prices to rise 10.2%.
Tucson, Ariz.: Prices to rise 10.2%.
Memphis, Tenn.: Prices to rise 10%.
I can’t help but focus in on Tucson, which is arguably the ‘epicenter’ of the housing crisis (the argument would probably come from Phoenix, Las Vegas and Southwest Florida). Our Help-U-Sell Brokers in the Tucson area have done a very good job of weathering the storm. Jimmie and Beverly Sonnier have continued to list, sell and maintain a good level of production and a wonderfully Cajun positive attitude. John and Maria Powells’ business, which they opened in the middle of this mess (2008), has absolutely exploded. Every time I talk to them they are trying to find another assistant or another buyer agent. So I’m very proud of our folks in Tucson and am excited to see good opportunity there. (And, oh, by the way: our other ‘epicenter’ brokers in Phoenix, Las Vegas and Southwest Florida have also done a stellar job. I am a little in awe of what they’ve accomplished).
That’s the thing about this tough real estate market: it’s full of opportunity. I understand you can buy a duplex in Tucson for less than $100,000. Think about that! Getting financing might be a challenge – that’s why so many investor sales are all cash today – but if you did secure a mortgage you’d have a positive cash flow right from day one PLUS the good possibility of an excellent increase in value.
Fortunately, it seems the public has started to recognize the opportunity. With interest rates ratcheting down once again, to levels below 4%, there seems to be an uptick in activity in many markets. A lot of ‘on-the-fence’ buyers have hopped off and are ready to make a move. So, you survivors out there: take a breath, give yourself a hug, a little pat on the back, get that smile adjusted and get busy. And I’d say, focus on Listings. They will attract that good emerging opportunity and those good emerging opportunists to you!
Five Facets of a Happy Life (and the Thing that Makes it all Work)
1. Joy: The ability to be at least a little amazed at every moment. My dog taught me about joy. For him, every instant is bursting with possibility, adventure, beauty and wonder. You might find joy in the way objects are arranged, in the color of your surroundings or the sounds, or in the way your mind takes it all in. No matter what happened to your last sale, this specific moment is always full of life.
2. Peace: Which is the absence of strife, both external and internal. Where Joy is mostly an attitude, a choice, a habit, Peace is a goal. It’s something we work on every day. We have to because strife and struggle are a very necessary part of life. For most of us, Peace has a lot to do with flexibility, adaptability, the willingness to change direction and happily take plan B. Peace and Trust go hand in glove because Trust is knowing you’re going to be ok no matter what happens.
3. Productivity: The ability to get stuff done. We are, by nature, do-ers, planners, builders. We make things and organize things, we progress step by step through a series of tasks to achieve a goal. We take pleasure in looking back and seeing what we’ve accomplished. Productivity gets at doing good work, at being creative, at learning and growing. And building. What are you building today?
4. Connectedness: To feel a kinship with other people. My guess is the hermit lifestyle would make most of us pretty crazy. We need each other, casually, constructively, and intimately. Whether you are a person who is energized by contact and the more people, the better – or one who is a little overwhelmed by crowds, interaction with others like ourselves is one of the things that keeps us grounded and focused.
5. Passion: The ability to be excited by something for a sustained period. Passion can fuel all of the other Four Facets. Passion drives us and makes us resiliant. Our greatest rewards come when we bring our genuine passion to play. That’s why it’s so important to know where our passions lie and to allow ourselves to explore and exercise them.
There is one thing that is a pre-requisite for all of this. It’s the one thing that has to be in place before we can push our potential anywhere. It’s Health. Joy, Peace, Productivity, Connectedness and Passion all take energy, and if you haven’t noticed, energy is a finite thing. You and I only have so much of it. We can increase the amount of energy we have for living by getting healthy. That means eating well, and exercising the body and the mind.
Often it’s small adjustments that pay off big in terms of Health. I dropped my cholesterol 35 points in 90 days by simply changing my breakfast routine. (My doctor was delerious: he wants to make me some kind of poster-boy.) I have a friend who’s lost 10 pounds this year by changing very little in the quantity of what he eats. He just quit eating mammals. One of the women in my spinning class is off blood pressure medicine for the first time in decades because she spends an hour, three times a week, pedaling herself into a good, heart pounding sweat.
Whether you work to increase your store of energy or are content to work with what you’ve got, ultimately you’ll choose how you’ll spend this rare and valuable resource. It is a choice not to be taken lightly. Here’s hoping you choose to spend it on the big five: Joy, Peace, Productivity, Connectedness and Passion.