Smack A Young Person Today! (It’s All Their Fault)

Here’s a little statistical analysis for you, courtesy of NAR.  First is a chart comparing rates of homeownership by age group in 2004 with the second quarter of 2010:

The blue line is the 2004 rate, the green is 2010 and the yellow is the % difference in the two.  What’s important is that homeownership has declined for every age group since 2004 with the biggest decline occurring in the under 35 group.  The good news:  there’s a whole lotta folks out there who NEED to buy a home!

Here’s another graph, this time from the Census Bureau.  It’s showing the ‘Mover Rate’ — which tells us who’s moving around out there.  Again, it’s the under 35 set that’s moving the most.  They are running around like chickens with their head cut off when what they should be doing is so simple:  buy a home!

Finally, here’s a non-comparative graph showing rates of homeownership, again by age:

Again, it’s that under 35 set that has the greatest need.

So, it’s younger people who are moving around the most, who have the greatest NEED to buy, but who are pulling back from homeownership at a faster rate than anyone else!  And all of this is happening at a time when interest rates are very low and housing is more affordable than it’s been in decades.

I sniff a sales challenge here.  What are we saying to the under 35 set to get them interested in buying real estate?  What should we be saying?  Does the old rent vs. buy analysis still work?  Or is it old hat?  What’s it going to take to get these folks off the fence and back into the market?

I also believe it’s time for young people to step up and take responsibility for this mess!  Clean it up!  Young people:  it is your DUTY to get out and buy a home this week.  You don’t just owe it to yourself, you owe it to your ECONOMY!  Personally, I think each of us should go out and find someone under 35 and just smack them!  It’s all their fault!

Financing Home Mortgage and Repairs At Once

The  FHA 203(k) mortgage program is the bomb (that’s for the gen Y’rs out there . . . for us Flower Children, it’s way cool).  With this program, a home buyer can choose a property in need of repair and finance the cost of fixing it up right in with the mortgage.  The repair and renovation money is held in escrow after closing and is doled out as repairs are made.  This is beneficial to the home buyer as repairs are financed under the same terms as the home mortgage (usually that means lower interest, longer term and, therefore, lower payment).  It also makes the home in need of serious repair — often the best buy in the market — an option for the average home buyer.

But here’s the catch:  in order for this great program to work, everyone has to know their stuff!  Most mortgage people have never done a 203(k).  Most agents haven’t a clue about how to go about putting together a deal involving this kind of financing.  Home buyers and agents are stymied when they contemplate how they are going to coordinate all of the bids and contractors involved in a project like this.  Suddenly it looks  like a 203(k) purchase is out of the question for most.

If you’re interested, however, there are some great resources out there.  My San Diego area B of A Mortgage Loan Originator, Rob Webber,told me he has access to a specialized team of Mortgage Reps who do nothing but 203(k) loans.  That’s a good start.  And today I read about REbuildUSA, a network of agents and lenders who have trained and become certified in working this kind of transaction.  REbuildUSA has just designated Lowes as their remodelling partner.  Now, working with a REbuildUSA certified agent, a purchaser can go into Lowes and get their entire project bid, from materials to contractors and schedules.  It’s one stop and all the gritty work is done.

I think this is an outstanding development.  We’ d all like to work these kinds of transactions (and they will become more prevalent as time goes on) but few of us have the time or resources to figure it out on our own.  REbuildUSA has created a path on which to run and has simplified the process of getting home buyers into rehab property.  To learn more about their program, click HERE.

What Did The Home Buyer Tax Credit Cost?

According to the Government Accountability Office (GAO)  the home buyer tax credit will end up costing tax payers $22 billion.  About a third of those claiming the credit were trade-up buyers from the most recent phase of the credit, which allowed repeat buyers in addition to the first time buyers. In terms of states’ participation in the credit, California had the most claims.  Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming had the most dollars for the tax credit claimed per resident. Here is a link to a chart showing the dollar amount per resident by State.

There is no doubt that the Tax Credit programs helped kick the industry into gear, though only temporarily.  I’m hearing that another dynamic developed:  home buyers who missed out on the last two Tax Credit programs waiting in the wings for the next Tax Credit to be announced.  Though the two programs created a flourish of activity, they also created a pulling back of potential buyers as soon as they ended.  I don’t want to get overly political (and I am grateful for the Tax Credit programs of ’09 and ’10), but this is what happens when government attempts to manipulate the economy.  It’s artificial, the benefits are often short term,  and it sometimes creates an offsetting reaction in the opposite direction.  Hindsight is 20/20, but we’d probably be in better shape today had we done a better job overseeing Wall St. over the past 10 years, rather than attempting to create a momentary urgency around homeownership after the fall.

Thank goodness we have the Help-U-Sell Homebuyer Stimulus Program to coax some of those procrastinating potential buyers back into the market.  Truth is:  there’s probably NOT going to be another Tax Credit for home buyers.  But, when you combine remarkably low interest rates with amazingly low prices — and then toss in the Homebuyer Stimulus Program — this is one of the best times in the history of the world to buy a home.

Focus

There is an old Cajun saying that I dearly love:  ‘Be what you is; even if you’s old and ugly then be old and ugly, but be what you is.’  The bad grammar is intentional – that’s the way I heard it.

There are many messages in this little line, but this morning what I’m getting is:  know your strengths and structure your environment so that you can bring them into play as frequently as possible.

Traditional real estate has generally made a mess out of the salesperson’s job description.  Agents are expected to do it all — which means prospect, list, sell, process, coordinate, followup and on and on and on.  Truth is:  it’s a very rare individual who can do all of that well and all at once.  The sharpest quickly zero in on the jobs that result in more listings and more sales and build a team to take on the other functions.

Maybe you’re a great people person.  You’re personable, sharp and you know your business.  People like to be around you and it seems the more time you spend reaching out to people the more business you do.  Maybe technology baffles you.  You couldn’t put together a flyer if your life depended on it and you still haven’t learned how to get your email on your Blackberry.  Instead of looking over at the Wunderkinds of our industry with all of their devices and technical know-h0w and feeling like you just don’t measure up, find a way to focus on your strength.  In this very two dimensional example, the way is clearly to hire somebody to do the largely clerical job of managing your technology (and maybe more).  Really:  if you are the kind of people magnet I just described, it’s probably a waste of your time and a squandering your biggest asset to futz around trying to keep up with technology when you could pay somebody else to do it for you at $12 an hour.

I got a real lesson in this last week when John Powell and I dropped in on one of our top producing brokers, Patrick Wood, in Chino Hills, CA.  Pat’s been in the top five consistently and has closed 44 sides in the last 3 months.  He has among the largest market shares in his area and personally outperforms entire offices of traditional agents.  Getting a moment with Pat is not easy because his typical day is non-stop meetings, back-to-back , all day long.  He’s doing what he’s good at:  Pat is definitely a people person.  Sitting just outside his office door is his assistant, Valerie.  You know the instant you meet her that this person is supremely well organized.  Her work-space is neat and everything seems to have its place.  The morning we dropped by I commented on the stack of offers she had open before her.  ‘That’s 18 offers that came in on one of our REO listings, ‘ she said.  I bet she could easily tell you the essential details of the best 5 at the drop of a hat.

John and I had been with Pat for about 30 minutes when Valerie came to the door.  ‘Your 10:30 is here and don’t forget, you’ve got an 11 O’clock, too,’ she said.  The message was clear:  You need to wrap this up or you’re going to be running late all day . . . and frankly, nice as James and John are, neither of them is going to buy or sell real estate through you, so get a move on!

This kind of functional partnership is the stuff of greatness.  With the right help a good REALTOR can be huge.   On the other hand, it’s very hard to find a great REALTOR who has no help.

In the early 90s, I spent a couple of days with Ron Prechtl, one of the top agents to ever work in Granada Hills.  He was a people meeting machine and that’s mostly what he did:  meet people, let them know he was in the business and collect their contact information.  Every time he came into the office, he’d drop a handful of business cards and scraps of paper on which he’d recorded information on the people he’d met on his assistant’s desk.  ‘These go on the regular mailing list,’ he’d say and then, pulling a few out, ‘And these go on the hot list.’  His assistant had a pre arranged schedule of mailings for all of Ron’s various prospect lists and one of her most important tasks was to keep it going and keep it growing.

Ron was a pretty sharp guy; but I’ll bet if he had to organize and maintain a mailing list, produce, print and mail letters on a consistent basis and track the results . . . he’d have done less than half his normal production.

I’ll bet he never spent an hour and a half making a flyer . . . someone else did that while he was out meeting five more people.

In today’s real estate world, finding the time to do what you do best can be daunting.  If you’re in the business, you’re probably doing Short Sales.  The time and detail requirements for this type of business are so demanding that few are really good at it.  You could spend hours of your day cranking through this — again largely clerical — job or find someone to do it for you.  It doesn’t even have to be an individual on staff.  We recently heard a good presentation from the Loss Mitigation Network who will take on that job for you . . . for free.

Is our business changing?  Absolutely.  Are there more and more new tools, new technologies, new strategies flooding into the industry?  Without a doubt.  But people still deal with people and that’s where they usually make the decision to buy or sell:  with people.  Don’t let your learning curve keep you from doing the thing that has always made you successful:  meeting the people.  Even if you is old an ugly . . .

(Un) Balance Sheet

Imagine an Ordinary (Traditional) Real Estate Office:  Acme Realty . . .

Average Sale Price:  $300,000

Average Commission per closed side:  3% ($9,000)

20 agents averaging 1/2 a closed side per month (some do more most do less — and the ‘average’ is way above what’s typical today)

Average Agent Commission Split:  70%

Expenses:

  • Rent:  $5,000
  • Utilities: $500
  • Office Equipment:  $500
  • Supplies:  $500
  • Admin:  $4,000
  • Management:  $7,000 (Most Brokers do this job 24/7 and never budget for it . . . which is voodoo economics to the max)
  • Dues:  $300
  • Conventions and Training:  $500
  • Insurance:  $300
  • Marketing:  $5,000
  • Total:  $23,600/ month

Production:

10 closed sides/month X $9,000 GCI per closed side = $90,000 GCI/month

Less 8% Franchise Royalty + Mass Ad Fund:  $7,200 (and you’d be crazy to start a business today without a recognized brand and support)

Less 70% to Agents:  $57,960

Net Operating Income (Company Dollar):  $24,840

Less Expenses: $23,600

Net Profit, Before Taxes:  $1,240 = 1.37% . . . which could easily be wiped out if the copy machine breaks or one of the closings falls through.

Is there any question that the ‘Ordinary’ real estate business is broken???

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